The American Missile Crisis

(research.contrary.com)

43 points | by JumpCrisscross 1 hour ago

9 comments

  • prawn 1 hour ago
    Down at the bottom of the article it's revealed that Contrary Research (article host) is an investor in Galadyne and another of the discussed manufacturers. Galadyne is introduced as a company with a stake in the liquid propulsion angle that the article pushes. One of the authors is listed as CEO of Galadyne. Bit like an advertorial?
    • JumpCrisscross 59 minutes ago
      > Bit like an advertorial?

      The author should have disclosed their affiliation more clearly at the top. But their arguments are solid, and I respect them putting their money where their mouth is.

      Solid-fueled rockets should not be the backbone of our missile forces anymore. That doesn’t mean we get rid of them. But we should be adding mass-produced liquid-fueled missiles to the mix. And our entire rocket force shouldn’t be able to be nerfed by hitting one plant in Utah.

  • jimbo808 33 minutes ago
    We could also just not start wars and we wouldn't need to worry about missile production
    • JumpCrisscross 26 minutes ago
      Which is why Ukraine, today, doesn’t have to worry about missile and drone production.
      • jimbo808 22 minutes ago
        America isn't Ukraine, we are a *massive country with a nuclear deterrent,* wedged between two massive oceans and two friendly countries.

        Nobody is going to attack us unless we go out into the world creating enemies.

        • stackghost 17 minutes ago
          American security, and indeed the entire pax Americana has been predicated upon your country's network of global military bases and your carrier battle groups. This is what enables the USA to decisively influence any conflict anywhere on the globe.

          Those bases would need to disappear in order for your comment to be true, and despite two thirds of your electorate who didn't vote against the future dementia ward patient currently in office, I don't think Americans are ready to accept a world where American foreign policy cannot be promulgated more or less at will, which is what isolationism would entail.

          • vkou 8 minutes ago
            No, America's influence over its globe-spanning empire is predicated on that. That's not the same thing as it's national security. It would do just fine if it weren't the head of a global hegemony, although it might have to start living within its means.

            Security-wise, two oceans, vassal neighbours and two thousand nuclear missiles have it covered.

        • lazide 16 minutes ago
          Bwahahahhahahahahha

          Wow

  • cpgxiii 26 minutes ago
    Anyone who describes hydrocarbon fuels and high-test peroxide oxidiser as a stable and proven combination is a charlatan trying to sell you something questionable. If you want a proven liquid fuel combination that works in missile environment conditions with well-behaved ignition, Hydrazine/UDMH+N2O4 is the king.

    Solids are better from a storage and deployment standpoint in almost all cases; anyone making a sincere case for liquid fuels should be making it on the basis of munitions that are best designed around them (notably, of course, most of the long range cruise missiles that have received the most hand-wringing about stockpile depletion are already air-breathing jet-fueled). The actual stockpile issues wrt solid rocket fuel are high-performance SAM/ABM interceptors, and those would require complete redesigns to make liquid-fueled equivalents.

    • JumpCrisscross 24 minutes ago
      > Solids are better from a storage and deployment standpoint in almost all cases

      The article says this. Liquids are better from a production perspective. In the Cold War, storage and deployment dominated. That need isn’t gone today. But it’s supplanted in priority by the need to be able to rapidly produce these munitions.

      > those would require complete redesigns to make liquid-fueled equivalents

      Again, the article acknowledges this. It’s saying we can do that faster than we can get another AP production facility online, and even then, we’d still be unfavorably production constrained compared to China.

      • nixon_why69 9 minutes ago
        Solving a chemical manufacturing problem in the US has GOT to be easier than taking on additional operations and mechanical complexity for every single missile in combat theatres.

        The article cites permitting and procurement snafus for why it's so hard to stand up new AP plants, but the same procurement process would apply for new liquid engine designs with all their moving parts, no?

  • zarzavat 25 minutes ago
    Given the misadventures the missiles are currently being used for, it seems like less of a crisis and more of a blessing that the US's capacity for self-destruction isn't unlimited.
  • diogenescynic 34 minutes ago
    We only won World War II because we could produce our tanks faster than the Germans could destroy them and we could destroy their tanks faster than they could produce them. The Germany tanks were superior but our supply lines and manufacturing capacity are ultimately why we won. If we fought a large scale war today, we would be supply constrained by China and other 'rivals' who we can't rely on. We've outsourced everything in the name of efficiency, but have left ourselves spread incredibly thin and exposed huge weaknesses. Remember how fast supply chains broke down during the pandemic? Imagine how fast that breaks down for complex logistics needed to produce complex weapons... I think America is one war away from losing its 'super power' status and being diminished to a much lower status. Look at how we've already empowered Iran into an even more powerful adversary through this war/conflict.
    • JumpCrisscross 26 minutes ago
      And ships. We ended the war with none of the carriers we started out with.
      • cpgxiii 17 minutes ago
        Famously, of course, not at all the case, with Enterprise, Saratoga, and Ranger all surviving. Yes, losses of pre-war carriers were severe (Lexington, Yorktown, Hornet, and Wasp).
    • rf15 25 minutes ago
      Is that really true regarding what we know of WW2? I thought their designs had major flaws, not just the goldplating issues you mention. Besides, they mostly lost because they spend all their manpower and material on pointless incursions far away from their country.
      • dghlsakjg 5 minutes ago
        German tank and aircraft design and logistics had their own issues that made things worse, but largely, the biggest issue was just not being capable of keeping up with American manufacturing and Russian willingness to throw bodies at the fight.

        Just for context Allied tank production was 276k to the axis 67k. Most other production categories show similar ratios. Your tanks can be perfectly reliable, and superior in every way, but it will be hard to win a fight when you are outnumbered 4:1.

        Even now, the emerging doctrine from Ukraine, and now Iran, is to fight using asymmetric production advantages. Ukraine is taking out multimillion dollar facilities and ships with five figure UAVs. Iran has depleted US air defense stocks costing billions with a few million dollars worth of drones powered by motorcycle engines.

      • rwmj 22 minutes ago
        Wars between great powers are won and lost on manufacturing base. The classic book on this topic is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rise_and_Fall_of_the_Great...
    • scheme271 10 minutes ago
      The German tanks were superior when functioning but quite a few of them were difficult to produce, maintain, and use. Do better armor and weapons really imply a superior tank if it requires significantly more maintenance and breaks down more often. And that's ignoring the issues were the sheer weight of the tanks meant that they couldn't cross certain bridges or function in certain terrain.
  • NDlurker 1 hour ago
  • isoprophlex 18 minutes ago
    > Missile fuel is a binary: it can either be solid or liquid.

    Lol what?! No, binary fuels have two components that are both neccesary for operation.

    Also like commented elsewhere, peroxide fuels are... an adventurous choice

    What these basic errors mean for the perception of the rest of the article is left as an exercise for the reader.

    • jbxntuehineoh 5 minutes ago
      I think "missile fuel is a binary" is just a very inarticulate attempt to say "there are two types of missile fuel"
    • fnordpiglet 9 minutes ago
      It’s a bit odd as well as they then go into describing hybrid and gel systems that are both and neither respectively. But overall it’s a pretty informative article and I learned a lot.
    • lazide 15 minutes ago
      I think they meant like the odds are 50/50 - it either happens or it doesn’t (lol).
  • cguess 1 hour ago
    Before discussing anything related to nuclear missiles *[Command and Control by Eric Schlosser](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Command_and_Control_(book)) should be required reading.

    More missiles do not make the world safe, and due to human fallacy it almost always make us less safe.

  • tclover 1 hour ago
    Turns out you can’t print rockets